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What’s happening in the tropics?

A broad area of low pressure is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center just off Florida’s east coast, with the possibility that it could drift westward into and across the Florida peninsula. Currently, the odds of it developing into a tropical cyclone are modest: some forecasts place a 10 % chance in the next 48 hours to 7 days.

Even if the system doesn’t mature into a named storm, it is expected to enhance rainfall across Florida and possibly produce localized flooding. As it moves inland, land interaction and atmospheric shear should inhibit stronger tropical organization, limiting it more to a rainmaker than anything else. After crossing Florida, the remnants may emerge into the Gulf of Mexico where further changes are possible (though again, development chances appear low).

In short: it’s not a well‑organized tropical system now, but it’s worth watching as it brings rainfall to Florida and possibly evolves later.

Off the west coast of Africa, a tropical wave is under watch: it is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms along its path, and while dry air is currently limiting development, conditions may gradually become more favorable by mid to late next week. Over the next 7 days, there is about a 40 % chance that this system could organize into a tropical depression


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