JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Aside from Tropical Storm Arthur, we have not seen additional formation in the Atlantic so far this hurricane season.
Is that lack of activity at this point in the season abnormal? Not so much.
There are several factors that help to suppress tropical activity, and one of them is Saharan dust.
First, let’s take a look at where we should be on average with tropical activity in the Atlantic.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, the first named storm typically forms in early to late June, the first hurricane tends to form in early August, and the first major hurricane forms in early September in the Atlantic Ocean.
It is important to note that the second named storm typically forms in mid-July, so what we are seeing this year is not abnormal.
Over the next week, tropical formation is not expected.
One of the big reasons why is because of the concentration of Saharan dust in the Atlantic.
Each year, strong winds lift millions of tons of fine dust from the Sahara Desert in North Africa. That dust is carried thousands of miles across the Atlantic by the trade winds before eventually reaching the Caribbean, the Gulf and the southeastern United States.
Dust concentration has increased over the past few days in the basin. The higher concentration of dust takes moisture out of the atmosphere, which is not what you want to see if you’re looking for tropical development.
Saharan dust is made up of very dry air. As it moves over Florida, it can make it a little more difficult for thunderstorms to develop by suppressing cloud growth.
Later this week, into the upcoming weekend, the concentration will increase.
That’s why in the short term, we are looking fairly dry later this week. As it relates to tropical activity, that’s why activity is not expected to develop over the next few days.
You may notice more of a haze in the sky, especially during sunrise and sunset. This is due to the higher dust concentration in the atmosphere.
Air quality can also be impacted, especially when the concentration of dust is very high.
We will be sure to keep you updated as we continue through hurricane season.