JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Yes, there are five areas to monitor in the tropics right not, but no- you don't really need to worry now that Dorian has passed. Here's what is going on as we approach the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season.
Hurricane Dorian
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Still clinging to Category 2 strength and pulling away from our coastline by Thursday morning. The forecast cone show it speeding up in forward motion and swiping the coastline of South Carolina and then North Carolina before heading out into the open Atlantic.
Tropical Depression Fernand
Fernand spun up in the Gulf close to the Mexican coastline and was mainly a rainmaker for that area. It made landfall as a Tropical Storm and has since weakened to a Depression. Eventually, the remnants will be rainfall to Southern Texas as well.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle
What started as Tropical Depression 8 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle late on Wednesday. Gabrielle is in a low shear environment now and for the next few days, which is favorable for intensification, but the sea surface temperatures are not impressively warm. It will move to the northwest over the next several days. Here's the good part- Gabrielle will remain over the open ocean, never moving over land... our favorite kind of storm.
Area To Watch One
A small area of low pressure located about 200 miles northeast of Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms well to the southeast of the center. Only a small decrease in the upper level winds could result in the formation of a tropical depression in the next day or so. However, by Saturday upper-level winds are forecast to increase even further, making conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Even if this are were to develop, it would most likely never make its way over land.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Area To Watch Two
This one is too far out and too far away to tell if it could ever be a threat to anyone, it is basically a complex of thinderstorms making its way off of the coastline of Africa. A tropical wave along the coast of Africa will begin to move over the eastern Atlantic tonight. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some slow development late this week, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.