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Special Features

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front will move through Central Atlantic waters early this week, with strong to near gale-force northerly winds behind it. Significant NW swell, with period of 8 to 12 seconds, generated by gales N of the region will accompany these winds and combine with wind-waves to induce very rough seas SE of Bermuda starting tonight, spreading E across waters N of 20N through Wed. Widespread seas of 12 to 17 ft can be expected from 40W to 68W during this period. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 09N13W and extends southwestward to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 02N34W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 05W and 19W, and from 01S to 06N between 22W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary decaying front extends from Sarasota, Florida to SE Louisiana. On the SW and W Gulf, two surface troughs are generating scattered moderate convection across the E Mexico offshore waters and in the Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas prevail over the E, central, and SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern of the United States will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf today and tonight, then mainly fresh winds will prevail through Wed night. A ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region trough mid-week. A high pressure center will settle over the NE Gulf Thu through Fri producing mainly a gentle to moderate wind flow.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the high pressure N of the region and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is allowing for mostly moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, except for fresh to strong winds off Colombia where seas are rough to 10 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and the central Caribbean through Wed morning. Otherwise, a new set of long period northerly swell will reach the NE Caribbean and the waters just E of the Leeward Islands, including the Atlantic passages by the middle of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

See Special Features section above for information on a significant swell event that will start tonight, bringing very rough seas to part of the central Atlantic into mid-week.

A cold front extends from 31N68W to 28N80W and is followed by fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and moderate seas. Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough that extends from 31N60W to central Cuba is generating scattered showers N of 27N between 57W and 63W. Another cold front extends from a low north of our area into 31N50W to 26N58, the a trough extends to 22N67W. The Azores High of 1027 mb located S of the Islands extends a ridge across the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters, and supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 35W along with rough seas to 10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front over the western Atlantic will rapidly progress eastward through midweek. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas in northerly swell are expected in the wake of the front through the middle of week. A second cold front may enter the northern waters by midweek with strong winds and rough seas behind the front.$$ KRV

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