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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N21W. The ITCZ stretches from 02N21W to 04N33W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 11N and between 20W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low pres near 29N89W to Cabo Rojo, Mexico. A few showers are seen north of 28N and between 85W and 93W. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 6-9 ft are occurring behind the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong SE winds and moderate seas are found ahead of the front and north of 29N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will occur in the western Gulf behind the front into this afternoon. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin this evening into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep over the basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N winds and rough seas may develop off Veracruz Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas over much of the basin. Rough seas are occurring in the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles due to NE-E swell. Pockets of moisture is generating a few showers over the central Caribbean, while generally favorable weather conditions are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the islands and lower pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A persistent NE-E swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the northwestern Caribbean early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front extends from 31N60W to 29N62W, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front to the Florida Straits. A few surface troughs are seen ahead of this boundary and scattered showers are noted east of 60W and north of 25N. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found north of 27N and between 45W and 63W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 23N and west of 71W. In the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

A broad subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1026 mb high pressure near Madeira Island to north of Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas south of a line from 31N20W to Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening cold front located east of Bermuda is slated to move through the central Atlantic today and Sat, leading to fresh winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through tonight. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas will develop off NE Florida today ahead of a cold front that will enter the area tonight. These winds and seas will push east quickly Sat into Sat night. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun morning and dissipate Sun night. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold front may move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas ahead of and behind the front.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado