Go to the WJXT homepage

Special Features

East Atlantic Gale Warning: According to the latest Meteo-France forecast, a gale warning for winds gusting to gale-frorce for the high seas zones of the eastern portion of Irving, the western portion of Madeira, Agadir and Tarfaya until 21/09 UTC. Please refer to the next Special Feature for details on associated very large swells. Please refer to the high seas forecast issued by Meteo- France on the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Very large, long-period north swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-21 ft through tonight, subsiding to 12 to 16 ft on Sat, mainly N of the Cape Verde Islands and east of about 38W. Seas over these northeastern will gradually diminish in areal coverage with the remaining very rough seas subsiding below 12 ft near the Canary Islands Mon. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to 01N40W and to just inland Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 05N between 44W and to along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-35W.

Gulf Of America

A 1023 mb high center is over the north-central Gulf near 29N88W, with a ridge extending southwestward to the west-central Gulf. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a stationary front SE of the area is leading to fresh to locally strong northeast winds across the SE Gulf, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf region and a weakening stationary front over the central Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, through today. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected nightly, through the forecast period, across the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Tue night.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the offshore waters of northern Costa Rica. Isolated showers are ahead of the front. Fresh to locally strong north winds are west of the front per latest scatterometer satellite data. Seas with these winds are in the 4 to 6 ft. To the east of these features, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds along with slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the offshore waters of Costa Rica. Fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will continue behind the front, which is forecast to dissipate tonight over the SW Caribbean offshore waters. Afterward, moderate to locally strong NE winds will remain in the western Caribbean, including the lee side of Cuba and the Windward Passage through Sun as high pressure develops across the northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. As the ridge shifts slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia Sun night and prevail through Wed night.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France and associated large northerly swell that is impacting the far northeast waters of the discussion area.

A stationary front is analyzed from a 1013 mb low just north of the area near 32.5N63W southwestward to 31N66W and to a 1011 mb low at 28N70W. It continues from the low south-southwestward to eastern Cuba and into the Caribbean Sea. A broad mid to upper trough is present to the west of the frontal boundary over the western part of the area. Satellite imagery shows a large area of moderate rain, with embedded scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 24N between 60W and 68W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of 27N between 71W and 76W. The pressure gradient between high pressure building eastward in the wake of the front and the front is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds over those water. Rough to very rough seas are west of the front north and northeast of the Bahamas per latest altimeter satellite data. The pressure difference between a broad area of high pressure east of the front and the front is sustaining fresh to strong southerly winds north of 22N between 61W and the front. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8 to 11 ft range.

In the east Atlantic, a cold front has past the Canary Islands. It is analyzed from near 31N12W, south-southwestward to 24N16W, to 22N20W, to 20N30W and to near 22N39W. Behind it, a dissipating cold front extends from near 31N16W to 27N22W and to near 28N28W. Aside from the Special Features information, strong to near gale northerly winds along with rough to very rough seas are north of about 10N and east of 45W. The rough seas in north swell reach southward to near 12N and as far west as 57W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of the front north of 25N will continue to affect the offshore waters from west to east through Sun as the front transitions back to a cold front and shifts eastward. The front is expected to reach the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage during the weekend. A pre-frontal trough may approach the aforementioned areas. Expect for increasing showers and thunderstorm activity to affect those same areas during the weekend.

Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to move across the waters east of northern Florida offshore waters Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 27N through the middle of the next week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre