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Model projects Georgia COVID-19 deaths will exceed 3,400 by August

University of Washington model predicts coronavirus deaths in Georgia will peak April 21

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A model designed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington predicts there will be 3,413 COVID-19 deaths in Georgia by August 4.

The model, which is conducted under the direction of professor Chris Murray and was updated on April 5 to include a number of different data sources, also projects the number of deaths in the state will peak on April 21, with 137 deaths that day.

The number of deaths per day projected in Georgia.
The number of deaths per day projected in Georgia. (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation)

Based on the model, coronavirus deaths in Florida are also expected to peak on April 21, though it’s predicted there will be 242 deaths in the state on that day.

The model predicts the highest number of coronavirus deaths in a single day in the United States will happen earlier, on April 16. The death toll across the nation is expected to rise to 81,766 by August 4.

According to the data, the peak of the strain to the U.S. health care system is projected to occur on April 15, while hospital resource use in Georgia is expected to peak on April 20. Georgia is not expected to face a shortage in the overall number of hospital beds, but the state is expected to be short 743 intensive care unit beds, according to the model.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House Coronavirus Task Force response coordinator, backed the IHME’s findings at a news conference last month, saying the results mirror the Coronavirus Task Force’s data. Though it’s worth noting that the Washington Post reports the updated model by the IHME conflicts with many other models showing higher equipment shortages, deaths and projected peaks.

As of the evening of April 7, according to the Georgia Department of Public Health, there were 9,156 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the state and 348 deaths. In the small Southwest Georgia county of Dougherty, there were 56 reported deaths, the most of any county in the state, and 973 confirmed cases.


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