JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Retail Federation projects holiday sales will exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, even as retailers combat rising theft and consumers face mounting financial pressures.
An estimated 186.9 million shoppers are expected to make purchases between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, while both brick-and-mortar stores and online retailers report increasing security concerns.
“It was kinda crazy. It was like playing Pac Man in here, honestly,” says Alex Dekker, assistant manager at Midnight Sun, describing the Black Friday rush at the local import goods store.
For 27 years, Midnight Sun has served as a community destination for shoppers seeking unique holiday gifts, specializing in imported textiles, clothing and jewelry. However, like many retailers, they’re grappling with security challenges during the busy season.
“We do have a lot of safety measures in place,” Dekker explains. “However, it is something that we experience just as a store. We have a lot of cool things that people tend to like. So those that don’t have the greatest intentions will often pocket it.”
University of Florida researchers warn stores to prepare for increased foot traffic and heightened safety risks during the holiday season.
A new National Retail Federation report, developed by UF’s SaferPlaces Lab and the Loss Prevention Research Council, found that retail workers and shoppers may face higher risks this season despite public claims that theft is declining.
The report found:
- Retail crime is rising, even as some police data appears flat.
- Criminal groups are getting more sophisticated, using technology to disrupt cameras, defeat security systems and coordinate attacks on TikTok and Reddit.
- Frontline workers feel less safe than ever, especially during the holiday rush.
- High-demand items like apparel and footwear remain top targets, driving retailers to test new protection strategies that still keep stores welcoming.
According to UF researcher Read Hayers, Ph.D, the gap between police data and what retailers report underscores how much crime goes unreported.
For the November-December holiday season overall, the National Retail Federation estimates that U.S. shoppers will spend more than $1 trillion. But the rate of growth is slowing — with an anticipated increase of 3.7% to 4.2% year over year, compared with 4.3% during last year’s holiday season.
The threat isn’t limited to physical stores. Digital safety experts warn of increasing online scams targeting holiday shoppers.
“We’re seeing more and more people be targeted with e-commerce, digital fraud, phone scams, as well as other types of threats like merchandise theft and supply chain theft,” says Josh Terry, a digital safety expert with Aura.
Terry cautions shoppers about websites advertising suspiciously low prices.
“If you’re just trying to get the best deal and you see something that might just be a little bit too good to be true, this is one to look out for,” he warns. “Fake e-commerce websites often look very much like real ones.”
As holiday shopping intensifies, consumers face growing financial challenges. Credit card debt and delinquencies on short-term loans continue to rise, leading more shoppers to turn to “buy now, pay later” options for holiday purchases.
These payment plans allow consumers to spread the cost of holiday decor, gifts, and other items over time, though financial experts advise careful consideration of terms and ability to repay.
Moreover, experts expect consumers to drive record Cyber Monday spending this year, despite wider economic uncertainty.