TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Democrats have held a historic lead in pre-election day voting, outpacing Republican returns by hundreds of thousands, but the GOP is beginning to cut into that lead.
Republicans are hoping to recreate the victory scored in Florida in 2016 with Election Day turnout at the center of the strategy. That was on Vice President Mike Pence’s mind as he spoke in Tallahassee over the weekend.
“While the returns were coming in, you know, the president took to kind of tapping me on the shoulder and pointing at the screen,” Pence recalled of the last presidential election. “But I’ve got to tell you, when Florida came through I thought he was gonna knock me down.”
The vice president urged supporters to recreate that victory, even giving out the address and hours of a local early voting site. “You can go down to the Leon County Courthouse,” Pence told the crowd.
But the following day, the county saw the lowest turnout since early voting began. And even Monday morning, the site pitched by the vice president wasn’t exactly bustling with activity and prospective voters.
Over the weekend, Republicans did narrow Democrats' lead slightly. Still, Florida Democrats have cast roughly 350,000 more votes than their Republican counterparts.
“I don’t think it’s insurmountable," Leon County GOP Chairman Evan Power said. “I think what you’ve seen is they took a lot of their super voters and moved them to vote by mail.”
The GOP is counting on Election Day turnout to deliver a victory.
“If you look back two years ago, it was the Election Day turnout that pushed the governor over the top and I think we’re looking at the same kind of dynamics here,” Power said.
But Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, the state’s top elected Democrat, believes that even if Republicans turn out in higher numbers, Trump can’t count on their all of their votes.
“I’ve traveled the state," Fried said. “Every three out of four Republican ballots and voters that I have spoken to are just not going to do another four years of Donald Trump.”
Power said once all votes are cast, he anticipates a one- or two-point turnout advantage for Republicans, but there is no guarantee that will be the case.
In 2016, Trump won Florida by just 112,911 votes, defeating Hilary Clinton by 1.2 percent of the popular vote.