JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – It certainly feels like summer across the area due to the higher humidity and the storms. This is due to a combination of several atmospheric features near our region.
An area of disorganized showers and storms is located near Mexico and Cuba. Due to the wind flow across this disturbance along with an area of high pressure to our east, our area is under a southerly flow.
This will transport tropical moisture into our area through the weekend which will bring widespread showers and storms to the region.
In fact, rainfall totals could climb to as much as 5 inches or more. Rainfall totals will depend highly on where storms develop.
Notice the deep red overhead this weekend. That’s the deep tropical moisture which will help enhance the shower and storm coverage. There’s also a backdoor front that will be nearby during this period, which will also help to enhance the coverage.
Thankfully, tropical development is not expected due to the high wind shear in the Gulf. Remember, wind shear helps prevent a system from becoming organized. Wind shear is the change in wind speed with height.
It is important to note that hurricane season begins on June 1, so let’s look ahead.
The upcoming season is forecast to be less active than previous years. Let’s break down the names for this season and why this season could feature less activity.
You may recognize Isaias, which was previously used in 2021. Names come from a list compiled by the World Meteorological Organization.
The organization maintains six alphabetical lists of twenty-one names. The names are often reused every six years.
The overall forecast calls for below-normal activity in the Atlantic Basin.
Colorado State University is calling for 13 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 6 are expected to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 2 major hurricanes — Category 3, 4 or 5 storms with winds of at least 111 mph.
NOAA is calling for 8-14 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 3-6 are expected to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 1-3 major hurricanes.
NOAA says it has 70% confidence in those ranges. A typical season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
According to the forecast, there’s a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season. This is the first outlook since 2015 where NOAA is calling for below normal activity.
Why does the forecast call for below normal activity? We can look close to South America for part of the answer.
Water temperatures are warmer than normal in a region near South America. This indicates that we are in an El Niño.
When El Niño is present, this would tend to bring fewer tropical systems into the Atlantic basin because wind shear and trade winds are stronger, and there’s more stability in the atmosphere.
Remember, even if the hurricane season is projected to be “below normal,” all it takes is one storm. It is critical that you have a plan before a storm impacts our area.
That’s why The Weather Authority is dedicating an entire hour to helping you feel ready, whether you’ve lived through storms for years or if this is your first season here
Join us Thursday night (May 28) at 8 p.m. for The Weather Authority Hurricane Plan.
We’ll explain what’s changing in hurricane forecasting this year and how those updates could put more useful, more timely information in your hands when it matters most.
We’ll also go over putting together a hurricane kit that fits your family.