Tracking the tropics: Here’s the next system to watch

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 9pm Friday, or earlier if necessary.

The NHC places a 50% chance on the system to form within the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, this system is expected to remain largely at sea and not expected to move towards us. It may end up impacting Bermuda.

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In addition to this area we are monitoring, long term forecast models are hinting that there will be a tropical system developing in the Gulf at the end of the first week of June. The scenario looks a tad bizarre in a meteorological sense, both the GFS and the Euro show a storm in the Pacific crossing Mexico and entering the Gulf, where it reforms as a tropical system and potentially heads towards Texas.