National Hurricane Center predicts 40% chance of tropical disturbance in the Gulf

Low chance of development for an area of low pressure in the Caribbean

40% chance for storm development
40% chance for storm development (KPRC)

The National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that could become a named storm by early next week. There is little development expected over the next two days but a 40% chance over the next five days.

If a storm does develop, it will be named Bill.

National Hurricane Center 2 p.m. Saturday

An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure. Slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of development, due to the slow-motion heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico.

Formation chance through 48 hours - low -10%.

Formation chance through 5 days - low - 40%.

Computer models show little agreement about development and track next week. (KPRC)

Long-range forecast models have been hinting at development for the past several days. But with no disturbance currently in existence there, no definitive predictions can be made for what to expect next week.

Models also disagree on the strength and path of any potential tropical system. The current European forecast predicts the system to stay in the western Gulf, while the latest American model favors more of a central Gulf path.

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