JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – I know a lot of you have been watching the skies and checking your lawns — we’re in a big rain deficit here in the Jacksonville area.
Right now, some spots are 15 to 25 inches or more below where we should be for rainfall. If you’ve noticed brown grass or that persistent smoky smell, you’re not alone.
Fires have been a real problem in places like Brantley County, with smoke drifting out toward Waycross and even north of Lake City. It’s gotten to the point where any talk of real rain is something worth celebrating.
Here’s the good news: I’m tracking a stalled front on The Weather Authority’s Exact Track 4D radar that’s expected to turn things around, at least for a few days.
By Saturday, that front should deliver an 80% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. These storms could bring at least an inch of rainfall, maybe even more, in your neighborhood. That’s exactly what we need to help with our fire risk and recharge those parched lawns.
The front is forecast to start moving south on Sunday, lowering our rain chances to about 50%. It’s not a permanent fix — our deficit is just too large — but it’s a step in the right direction.
Hot days, weekend cool down
Right now, most of us are waking up to temperatures in the 60s, except for our friends in Palatka, where it dipped briefly into the 50s.
Believe it or not, we’re going to rocket up into the 90s today, so don’t forget sunscreen and water if you’re out and about!
Winds are calm for now, but expect some gusts to pick up later—especially around areas near active fires.
Our daytime highs will run above average through Saturday, then some cooler air moves in behind that rain-laden front.
By Sunday, daytime highs are forecast to drop to about 75 degrees before bouncing back next week.
If you’re planning any tee time or outdoor activity, I recommend moving your plans inside just in case the storms arrive early. The Saturday soaker could make things messy!
Air quality and smoke on the radar
Air quality is OK right now, but it’s going to bounce around as winds shift and storms roll in.
The biggest fire and smoke impacts are in Brantley County, with plumes pushing toward Waycross and north of Lake City.
At this time, visibility is fine across most of the region, and we’re not seeing any major air quality issues on my maps.
Keep checking our weather tools and app to get real-time air quality updates. I’ll be keeping a close eye as the front approaches—hopefully the rainfall will give us a break from that lingering smoke.
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Weather changes fast this time of year! Be sure to check Exact Track 4D for the latest radar updates, and stay weather-aware if you’ve got weekend plans. And if you catch a dramatic sky or rainfall shot, I’d love to see it—share your weather photos with SnapJAX at news4jax.com/snapjax/.