Nicole becomes a tropical storm. Hurricane Watches posted for parts of the area

Coastal St. Johns and Flagler counties now under a Hurricane Watch

10 a.m. Nicole advisory

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Subtropical Storm Nicole has reorganized and is now a tropical storm.

Hurricane Watches have just been posted for coastal St. Johns and Flagler counties.

Tropical Storm Warnings continue for the region’s entire coastline, with Storm Surge Warnings in effect for the coast and the St. Johns River.

Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for the entire I-95 corridor in Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida. Alachua, Union, Bradford, Clay and Putnam counties are also under a Tropical Storm Watch.

Tropical Storm Warning

Today, we will be on the edge of a building Subtropical Storm that will last through the end of the week. Its magnitude may bring conditions similar to the impacts Ian had on Northeast Florida.

Futurecast model Wed PM

Beach and coastal areas will absorb the bulk of the Subtropical Storm but inland water along the banks of the St. Johns River will rise with the onshore flow.

Forecast models are fuzzy on the exact strength of the low, but early indications call for a tropical storm moving into central or south Florida.

As of 7 a.m. Tuesday, the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located 460 miles east of West Palm Beach.

Nicole is moving toward the west near 9 mph. A west to west-southwest motion should continue through Wednesday. A west-northwest motion is forecast to begin on Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday night.

On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours, and Nicole is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength by Wednesday and Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas and approaching the east coast of Florida.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the center.

As the system approaches Florida’s east coast, winds will increase this evening and tonight to 25-30 mph.

Max Wind Forecast Tue PM

Wednesday winds will begin gusting to 40 mph, with some of the highest winds overnight into Thursday morning as the low crosses south Florida.

Max Wind Forecast Thu AM

For areas further inland, strong northerly winds may also slow or temporarily prevent the decline of the St. Johns River from previous rain from Hurricane Ian.

Impacts: Wednesday - Friday

  • Surf zone breakers waves: 10ft waves
  • Dangerous rip currents
  • Offshore seas: 13-16 feet Wednesday
  • 4 continuous days of beach erosion
  • Near full moon coastal flooding (especially during high tides)
  • Scattered showers & storms
  • Gusty winds 30 mph Tuesday night
  • Wind gusts 40+ mph Wednesday-Thursday morning
Weather impacts this week.

The Atlantic hurricane season concludes on November 30.

About the Authors:

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

Richard Nunn is the Weather Authority Chief Meteorologist