JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The El Niño Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO is one of the indexes we use to help forecast the weather pattern months down the line.
What exactly is it? ENSO is a climate pattern of shifts in the tropical Pacific Ocean Sea surface temperatures and winds. These shifts often change rainfall and wind patterns around the globe.
El Niño is a phase where warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. On the flip side, La Niña is a phase where cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures are present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
There is a neutral phase where normal sea surface temperatures are present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
La Niña has returned and is expected to be around through early next year. This would point to a sign of more activity in the Atlantic Basin because La Niña typically brings more hurricanes due to weaker wind shear and trade winds. This also brings less stability to the atmosphere, which would help to enhance activity.
On the other hand, when El Niño is present, this would tend to bring fewer tropical systems into the Atlantic basin because wind shear and trade winds are stronger, and there’s more stability in the atmosphere.
We are now back in a La Niña phase, which can be shown on the water temperature anomaly map. Cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures are present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This is not a cause for concern, though, as La Niña is expected to be weak and short-lasting.
Going into winter, La Niña could impact our pattern. Typically, La Niña brings drier and warmer weather into the Southeast, whereas areas well to our north are cooler and wetter.