JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A tropical wave is threatening Caribbean islands. If it develops, the storm would be named Melissa.
Let’s break down where this wave is, how strong it may become and where this wave could go.
The wave designated as Invest 98L is currently located in the eastern Caribbean Sea. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph, but is expected to slow down over the next few days. As the wave slows down, it is expected to enter a more favorable environment for development. This system will likely impact the ABC islands later this week. There’s still considerable uncertainty as to where this system will go this weekend and beyond.
With the wave being designated as in invest, model data is continuously run to see where the storm may track.
As of this morning, there’s general agreement from models that the storm will track to the west. However models split later this week with regards to its speed and when it takes a turn to the northeast. While the majority of models turn the system into Hispaniola, a few keep the system slow and weaker. This would allow the system to track more to the west and closer to Cuba. In fact, the models below show the difference in the eventual track.
The GFS model and the European model (EURO) show two very different outcomes for this system.
The GFS model (white lines) shows a well defined system near Hispaniola.
The European model (EURO) in yellow shows a weaker system well to the west of Hispaniola. The question will be how upper level disturbances impact the track of the eventual system.
Regardless, islands in the Caribbean need to monitor this system very closely. Where it goes from there is still questionable. The system will likely move into the open waters of the Atlantic later this weekend into next week, but the strength and speed of certain upper level disturbances (fronts and areas of low pressure) could help to steer the system away from our state. Right now, a track away from Florida appears likely as a stronger front is forecast to keep the system to our east.
Development of this wave is likely and will eventually become Melissa. Most models keep this system as a Tropical Storm by the end of the week, but a hurricane is not out of the question into the upcoming weekend. The ocean water is very warm in this area, which could help the system to strengthen into a hurricane. We will be closely monitoring this system this week.