A large area of low pressure is sitting in the western Gulf, and it’s already kicking up some showers nearby. The difference in air pressure between that low and a stronger high-pressure system to the east is essentially acting like a wind machine — generating gusty southeast winds and choppy to rough seas, particularly west of a line from southern Louisiana down toward the northeastern tip of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and north of 22 degrees north latitude.
Outside of that zone, winds are lighter and seas are calmer.
Storms brewing near Mexico
A stretch of low pressure running along the eastern coast of Mexico down into the Bay of Campeche is generating clusters of showers and thunderstorms, mostly on its eastern side. The good news is that forecasters do not expect this system to significantly strengthen before it moves inland over eastern Mexico by early Sunday.
What to watch for next week
Here’s where things get more interesting. After moving over land, that same system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf — what some now call the Gulf of America — on Tuesday or Wednesday, potentially interacting with a frontal weather boundary in the region.
Through Sunday night, the western Gulf can expect:
- Gusty to strong southeast winds
- Moderate to rough seas
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms
Heading into Tuesday through Thursday, a ridge of high pressure pushing in from the Atlantic, combined with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico, will keep winds fresh to strong across the western Gulf and moderate across the eastern Gulf.