JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – In the latest ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) discussion issued by the Climate Prediction Center, El Niño conditions are currently present and are expected to strengthen into the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter.
What does this mean, and how will it influence our weather through the rest of the year?
Sea surface temperatures in the ENSO region (off the coast of South America) are above normal, which is an indication that El Niño is present.
Notice the deep red over that region.
In fact, the official NOAA CPC ENSO probabilities forecast a high chance of El Niño conditions through early next year.
Diving deeper into the data, there’s a high probability of very strong El Niño conditions (greater than or equal to a 2-degree Celsius sea surface temperature anomaly) starting later this summer through the end of the year.
Looking at the strength probabilities, there’s roughly a 50% chance of a very strong El Niño within the September, October and November timeframe.
There’s roughly a 60% chance of a very strong El Niño later in the fall through the winter months.
Looking at one of the forecast models, several ensemble members indicate a sea surface anomaly temperature of around 4 degrees Celsius later this year, which would indicate a very strong El Niño.
El Niño, which is the warm phase of ENSO characterized by higher-than-normal temperatures in the eastern Pacific, often leads to more vertical wind shear in the Atlantic hurricane development zone.
The higher wind shear typically suppresses development.
Remember, there are several other factors we look at as well to determine if tropical development will occur. This is one piece of the puzzle, but it gives us a good idea of the general activity.
The good news is that in an El Niño pattern, the Southeast typically sees wetter-than-normal conditions. This would bring needed rainfall to our region, which remains in a drought.
Above normal rainfall will be possible later this summer into the fall.
Regarding temperatures in an El Niño pattern, the Southeast typically sees cooler-than-normal temperatures.
To conclude, it appears likely that we will see a stronger El Niño develop later this summer into the fall. We will be sure to keep you updated as we head through the next few months.