One feature we’ll be watching closely over the next several days is the stalled front across the northern Gulf. Big question has been WILL it develop into something tropical?
While some of the long-range computer models have suggested an area of low pressure could develop along that boundary, it’s important to remember that not every low-pressure system in the Gulf becomes tropical.
A stalled front is essentially a dividing line between different air masses, and it’s a natural place for showers and thunderstorms to repeatedly develop.
As those storms fire, computer models will often try to generate a low-pressure center, but that’s often just a reflection of the active weather not necessarily the beginning of a tropical cyclone.
For a tropical system to develop, that low has to separate itself from the front.
In other words, it has to stop relying on temperature differences along the boundary and instead become a warm-core system powered by the heat and moisture of the Gulf waters.
It also needs thunderstorms to remain concentrated over one center for an extended period, low wind shear so the storms aren’t torn apart, and a very moist atmosphere to continue building.
Right now, the front actually makes that process more difficult because it stretches the energy out over a large area instead of allowing it to tighten into one organized circulation.
So while we’ll continue to monitor the Gulf as we always do during hurricane season the current setup favors a broad area of showers, thunderstorms, and potentially heavy rainfall more than it does a well-organized tropical system.
It’s a good reminder that just because a model paints a low pressure area in the Gulf doesn’t mean a hurricane is on the horizon.
Our job is to separate what the models are suggesting from what the atmosphere is actually capable of producing.