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Tracking the Tropics: no major changes as National Hurricane Center follows two areas of development

Gulf system could develop early next week

Thursday 2AM

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two separate areas of tropical activity — one in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and another closer to home in the Gulf — but neither is expected to pose a significant threat in the near term.

Atlantic wave stays disorganized

A tropical wave southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms, but the storm system remains disorganized. The system is moving generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph, and forecasters say some slow development is possible over the next couple of days.

However, the window for growth appears to be closing. By this weekend, the system is expected to drift into atmospheric conditions that are less favorable for development, and further strengthening is not anticipated.

The National Hurricane Center puts the chance of the system forming into a tropical cyclone at just 10% over both the next 48 hours and the next seven days — keeping it in the “low” category.

Gulf system could develop early next week

Closer to the U.S. coastline, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop this weekend over the northeastern Gulf. The system is expected to move slowly northeastward, tracking over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the southeastern United States early next week.

The NHC says some gradual development is possible, though the system’s formation chances remain low — near 0% within 48 hours, climbing to 20% over the next seven days.

Residents along the Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S. coastline should continue to monitor forecasts as this system takes shape over the coming days.

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