The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on three areas of disturbed weather across the Atlantic, although only one currently has a notable chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days.
Disturbance 1: 10% Chance of Development
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms.
Some development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves eastward across the central subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending its chances of formation by Thursday.
Development chances:
- Next 48 hours: 10%
- Next 7 days: 10%
Disturbance 2: 70% Chance of Development
This is the area the National Hurricane Center is watching most closely.
Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is being monitored for development.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Development chances:
- Next 48 hours: 30%
- Next 7 days: 70%
For now, there is no named storm associated with this system, but it has the highest development potential of the three areas being monitored. The next name on the list is Cristobal.
Disturbance 3: Near 0% Chance of Development
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are located about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands. The system is expected to encounter a large area of environmental dry air as it approaches the Windward Islands, and development is not expected.
Locally heavy rains and gusty winds will be possible in the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves through the area.
Development chances:
- Next 48 hours: Near 0%
- Next 7 days: Near 0%
What factors could limit intensification of these waves? Wind shear is a big one, and this is a measure of the change in wind speed with height.
The higher the wind shear, the more difficult it is for a storm to develop.
In the example above for a hurricane, the system weakens due to the center being exposed.
The same can be said for a tropical disturbance that has yet to have a defined core.
Wind shear is high for a large part of the Atlantic basin, which will help to prevent significant development.
Dust concentration is also elevated across the Atlantic basin. Dust tends to dry out the atmosphere, which will help to prevent significant development.
It is important to note that while these factors are present, development is still possible. The wave with a 70% chance for development is a good example of this. We will continue to monitor.