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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf waters late Sun night and move quickly southeastward, departing the basin Tue night. Fresh to near gale-force winds will follow the front, covering much of the Gulf waters, along with rough seas. A building ridge behind the front will support gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas off Tampico Mon afternoon and night. These winds and seas will reach the waters off Veracruz Mon night and persist until late Tue. Seas may peak around 18 ft off Veracruz Mon night into Tue. Conditions will improve from north to south Tue into Wed.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A frontal boundary extends from 31N44W to 27N70W. Large NW swell behind the front is producing 12 to 15 ft seas north of 27N between 45W and 61W. A reinforcing set of large NW swell will move into the northern waters tonight to maintain the area of rough to very rough seas.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N15W and continues to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 02N35W and to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas. A few showers are noted in the south-central Gulf, while generally dry conditions prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf through late Sun. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf early Mon, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas, except gale conditions will be possible in the far west central and southwest Gulf by Mon afternoon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the basin through mid week as high pressure builds over the region following the front.

Caribbean Sea

Broad ridge north of the basin supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the central and eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through mid week, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Tue night, reach from central Cuba to Belize by late Wed, and from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section above for details on the ongoing significant swell.

The pressure gradient between a storm system north of Bermuda and the subtropical ridge centered in the eastern Gulf supports moderate to locally strong westerly winds north of 26N and west of 60W. Seas in these waters are 7-12 ft. In the meantime, a cold front extends into the north-central Atlantic waters, supporting fresh to strong S-SW winds and rough seas, along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a weak high pressure system that supports moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending along 26N between 55W and 70W will dissipate through tonight. A second, stronger cold front between roughly Bermuda and the coast of South Carolina is approaching the area from the north. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will follow this front as it moves to the east of the area by early Mon, leaving a trailing stationary front to dissipate along 21N. Large N swell will also follow this front, mixing with large swell already covering the area north of 22N and east of 70W. A third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night, and will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by late Tue, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Wed, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Thu night.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado