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Special Feature

Tropical Storm Bertha is moving inland over eastern Texas. Heavy rains are spreading across portions of coastal Texas. At 23/2100 UTC, Bertha is centered near 29.8N 94.7W at 23/2100 UTC or 30 nm N of Galveston Texas, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will move across portions of eastern Texas during the next several hours. Bertha is expected to gradually weaken, and it is forecast to dissipate tonight or on Friday. Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals to 4 inches into tonight along the Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Swells generated by Bertha will continue to affect the Louisiana and Texas coast through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Bertha NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is just E of the Cabo Verde Islands along 22W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are noted near the southern end of the wave axis, mainly from 06N to 10N between 20W and 25W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 46W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An area of showers and thunderstorms is noted E of the wave axis affecting mainly the waters from 10N to 15N between 37W and 42W

A third tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles along 58W moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis at this time. The wave will move across the Lesser Antilles tonight, and over the eastern Caribbean on Fri.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near Dakar and continues SW, then W to near 10N31W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and W of 40W.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Bertha forecast to dissipate tonight or on Fri.

Elsewhere outside of Bertha, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail as high pressure becomes established over the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, Bertha will move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N 97.2W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. In the wake of Bertha, a high pressure center will become established over the NE Gulf through Fri, then shift to the central Gulf. The high pressure will provide for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and near NE Mexico and the Texas coast through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

The presence of a surface trough north of the basin has reduced the usual north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean Sea. As a result, fresh to strong winds are noted per scatterometer data in the south-central Caribbean where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Convection has flared up over most of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and parts of Hispaniola, especially in Haiti. An upper level-low located over the Cayman Islands is helping to induce this convective activity.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

A surface trough persists over the western Atlantic, and now extends from 30N75W to the central Bahamas. A large area of showers and thunderstorms remains associated with this trough covering the waters from 22N to 31N between 57W and the trough axis. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to strong northerly winds are between the Canary Islands due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted elsewhere E of 70W with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail W of 70W, including the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will continue westward reaching the central and South Florida Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Fresh trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through Sat night. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the waters east of northern Florida Sat night through Sun night, preceded by fresh to strong southwest winds north of about 28N and east of 75W.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr