Federal forecasters are predicting a quieter-than-average Atlantic hurricane season this year, though officials warn it only takes one storm to turn any season dangerous.
NOAA’s National Weather Service released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook Thursday, giving a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season. The season runs June 1 through Nov. 30.
Forecasters are calling for 8-14 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 3-6 are expected to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 1-3 major hurricanes — Category 3, 4 or 5 storms with winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA says it has 70% confidence in those ranges. A typical season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
What’s driving the forecast
Competing weather patterns are behind the below-normal outlook. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the season, which tends to suppress tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic. At the same time, Atlantic Ocean temperatures are forecast to run slightly above normal and trade winds are expected to be weaker than average — conditions that typically fuel a more active season.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
Technology, preparedness taking center stage
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized the agency’s investment in forecasting tools ahead of the season.
“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” Lutnick said. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”
NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs echoed that message, pointing to a new generation of tools being put to work this season.
“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said Jacobs. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”
A forecast — not a landfall prediction
It’s worth noting what the seasonal outlook does not tell us. NOAA’s forecast is based on large-scale weather and climate patterns and does not predict where or when any storm might make landfall. That’s determined by shorter-term, rapidly changing weather conditions closer to an event.
Graham urged residents in hurricane-prone areas not to wait for a storm to start preparing.
“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm. Visit weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov for important preparedness information,” Graham said.