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Mindy moves offshore

Never much of a tropical storm

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Mindy never had the chance to really organize, and arguably was caught up in a very diffluent upper-level wind pattern, which allowed for her brief existence.

At 5 a.m. Thursday -- barely 12 hours after the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to a tropical storm shortly before landfall in the Florida Panhandle -- the center was about 80 miles south-southeast of Valdosta. It had 35 mph sustained winds and it was moving northeast at 20 mph.

The next NHC update is due out at 5 p.m.

TRACKING THE TROPICS: Follow Mindy, Hurricane Larry on interactive tracking map

Based upon one buoy, 41039, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Mindy at 5 p.m. Wednesday evening.

Hurricane forecasters should have looked the other way with this system as well, but alas, the National Hurricane Center went for it.

Mindy impacts on Jacksonville: Mix of sun, downpours and breezy.

Overnight winds will be southerly, up to 12 mph. These winds will likely be briefly gusty, up to 30 mph in some of the heavier downpours that will take place in bands of showers. Because Jacksonville will be on the southern side of the track, we will only have brief, yet vigorous downpours through about noon Thursday.

Brief downpours translate into non-flooding downpours that will accumulate less than an inch in most backyards south of the Florida-Georgia line. During those downpours, it will be all that of a tropical depression. Briefly intense.

Where will the worst of the rains/weather take place?

Most likely it will be from Valdosta to Waycross to Savannah, Georgia. There, rainfall may exceed 3″ and winds may exceed 35 mph as the core of then Tropical Depression Mindy slides off the Georgia coastline just after noon.

Summing up: Into sunrise Thursday, partly cloudy with a few brief downpours. Winds will be southerly, up to 12 mph. Rainfall will be under 1/2″.

Then it will be a very changeable weather day, with the worst of the weather from Valdosta to Waycross to Savannah. Off-on downpours and mixed sunshine will dominate the morning hours. By lunch, the heaviest of the rains will begin to move off the coast allowing for sunshine and only a few lingering afternoon showers on Thursday.

Highs will range from near 90° from Palatka to St. Augustine to highs around 86° in Jacksonville to the low 80s in Georgia. Winds will be westerly and gusty, up to 25 mph in Jacksonville, south of town and shifting from the southeast to the northeast well north of Jacksonville. Rainfall will range up to an inch in Jacksonville to maybe 3″ in Central Georgia.

Tornado threat will be present in Florida.

Not much different than what we see on umbrella days, other than a greater tornado threat in Florida.
North of Mindy's track will see heavier rains, gustier winds

Mindy wasn’t a classic system and is similar to an area of low pressure that developed over the Bahamas in July.

Unlike Mindy, that system was never named (it should have been named Fred). Actually, that system looked very impressive and had a well-defined circulation -- as hurricane hunters checked the system, they verified the strong surface circulation. But, hurricane hunters also determined the atmosphere was particularly dry and the National Hurricane Center decided not to name that system.

About the Author:

Our chief meteorologist lives and breathes the weather on the First Coast.