JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The ultimate track will determine precisely what impacts Ian will have on Jacksonville. Based upon what is known this early Monday morning, Ian’s impact will be primarily heavy rainfall, coastal winds to 45 mph, beach erosion and possible small seiche along the St. Johns River in the downtown area.
Ian’s track will be further west, away from Jacksonville than that of Irma. Ian’s wind field will also be much less than that of Irma. The impacts will therefore be much more subdued.
Having said this, Jacksonville will be impacted by a large shield of heavy rain and gusty coastal winds that may reach over 45 mph.
Area beaches (and inland communities) will likely be placed under a tropical storm warning. This may be announced as soon as early Tuesday. Area beaches will not be evacuated as the track will be well west of Jacksonville. Yet a storm surge will be associated with an anticipated band of heavy rain that will surge up the coast on Thursday. Storm surge values up to 3′ above normal tide are possible.
Forecast high tides: Don’t assume we will see values 1-3′ higher than listed below; they are possible if the surge turns out perfectly wrong at the time of high tide.
|St. Augustine||10:50 a.m. 5.34 feet|
11:08 p.m. 4.94 feet
|11:36 a.m. 5.37 feet|
11:55 p.m. 4.80 feet
|12:25 p.m. 5.35 feet|
|Jacksonville Beach||10:19 a.m. 6.24 feet|
10:31 p.m. 5.46 feet
|11:04 a.m. 6.33 feet|
11:22 p.m. 5.25 feet
|11:53 a.m. 6.31 feet|
|Downtown Jacksonville||11:44 a.m. 2.64 feet||12:14 a.m. 2.59 feet|
12:25 p.m. 2.69 feet
|12:59 a.m. 2.58 feet|
1:13 p.m. 2.68 feet
Areas of most significant concern:
- All area rivers and creeks, especially Black Creek, both forks. This will include all small tidal creeks, from Pottsburg to Julington and Trout River.
- Many flood-prone backyards and areas are under recent regrade construction.
- The rainfall forecast still depends on the final track, but 4-8″ seems likely, with the potential for much more.
- Area bridges are likely to remain open, the only exception may come during the worst of the storm, currently estimated during the day on Thursday,
Although rainfall is our greatest concern, winds will be gusty in rain squalls and, on occasion, may gust along area beaches to 45 mph. This may be high enough to lead to trees and tree branches coming down, causing power outages.
At this point, based on previous storms, only scattered power outages are expected.
A shield of heavy rain will swing up the East Coast of Florida; this will constitute the vast majority of our rainfall. This will start impacting our southern counties Putnam, Flagler Wednesday during the day, and swing into Jacksonville into Wednesday evening. Rain will pick up in intensity overnight Wednesday into early Thursday.
The worst of our weather still depends on the final track, but for now, it appears Thursday morning into late afternoon will be our worst weather. Heavy rains and gusts of wind to 40 mph will be the most likely outcome for Jacksonville.
During Thursday afternoon, our winds and rains will shift into a showery pattern, possibly mixed with sunshine. Sounds better, but this could unleash a round of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes on Thursday evening.
This is ever-evolving, so check back frequently.
Meanwhile, review your ability to go without power for a few days, check local drains and pick up loose outdoor items that could get tossed about in stronger winds. Make final preparations for your home. If you live in a premanufactured home, review your yard. If large trees are nearby, consider leaving your home for a safer location.
Stay alert and continue to prepare your family and download the 2022 Weather Authority Hurricane Guide to your phone.
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