A disorganized area of low pressure is sitting in the Bay of Campeche — the southern pocket of the Gulf of Mexico, nestled between Mexico’s eastern coastline and the Yucatán Peninsula. This system is fueling a large cluster of heavy rain and thunderstorms, mainly in the southern and western Gulf.
The difference in pressure between this low and a dome of high pressure sitting in the northeastern Gulf is acting like a pressure squeeze — pushing strong southeast winds of near-gale force and generating rough seas across a large stretch of water south of roughly the Texas/Louisiana coastline area and west of the Florida panhandle region.
What to expect this weekend
The storm system is expected to drift northwest over the coming days and make its way inland over northeastern Mexico either late Saturday or Sunday. That may sound like good news — but there’s a catch.
The system could bounce back into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday and Wednesday, especially if it interacts with an approaching frontal boundary. Forecasters have assigned a 20% chance of tropical development within the next two to seven days — a relatively low but noteworthy probability worth monitoring. In other words, this isn’t necessarily over once it moves ashore.
In the meantime, strong southeast winds and rough seas, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms, are expected to stick around through Sunday across the southern Gulf.