JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – We continue to monitor an area of low pressure across Texas.
As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center has designated this disturbance as Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. What exactly is a potential tropical cyclone, and will this system impact our area?
A potential tropical cyclone is a system that is not yet a tropical cyclone, but which poses a threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.
Once a system has this designation, the National Hurricane Center can issue advisory packages. They include a public advisory, forecast/advisory, discussion, wind speed probability product, along with the forecast cone.
As of early Tuesday afternoon, Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 was located around 65 miles southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas or roughly 360 miles southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana. The system is moving northeast near 6 mph.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana. This means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 24 to 36 hours.
The system is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm on Wednesday. If this occurs, it would be designated as Arthur, which is the first name on the Atlantic hurricane list this season.
The system will eventually weaken and become post-tropical on Thursday.
Regardless if this has a name or not at that point, impacts across the Gulf will be the same (heavy rain and gusty wind).
Additional rainfall totals over 5″ are likely for a large part of the Gulf thanks to the system. This will lead to additional instances of flash flooding.
The flash flood risk is elevated from Texas into Louisiana on Wednesday. The higher risk will shift east on Thursday.
The higher risk will be from Louisiana into Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
Through the end of the week into the weekend, we can expect to see higher rain and storm coverage across Florida and Georgia as the moisture from the system passes by to our north.
While it won’t be a tropical system at that point, widespread showers and storms are possible.
The rainfall will be very beneficial for our area due to the widespread drought.