The intensifying El Niño could result in a well-below-average hurricane season.
Colorado State University and the team led by Philip J. Klotzbach are watching a strengthening El Niño and its potential for a quieter hurricane season.
Today, CSU announced further reductions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast now anticipates a well below-normal season. The moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify with a high potential for a strong El Niño at the peak of hurricane season.
Across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, sea surface temperatures are near long-term averages. Additionally, a strengthening El Niño could be the dominant factor, driving high levels of vertical wind shear, which creates an environment that is not conducive to tropical formation.
The updated forecast calls for a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season and preparations should be made every season.
This is the second reduction in storm activity and another forecast from CSU will be released on August 5th.
The new tropical forecast calls for 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. The average number of named storms is 14.4, hurricanes 7.2 and major hurricanes 3.2.
As a reminder, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was an above-normal season with 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Hurricanes Erin, Humberto and Melissa reached Category 5 intensity.