JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Aside from Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha, we have not seen additional formation in the Atlantic so far this hurricane season.
How does this compare to the average, and what does the forecast show for the rest of the season?
In terms of the average named systems in the Atlantic, we typically see our third named system on Aug. 3.
A lack of tropical activity is common before August. In fact, roughly 85% to 90% of our tropical activity occurs after July.
What about hurricanes?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, the first hurricane typically forms in early August, and the first major hurricane (category 3 or higher) forms in early September in the Atlantic Ocean.
Unlike earlier in the season, when most of our tropical activity develops closer to the United States, our eyes turn to Africa and the surrounding areas.
Saharan dust has been prominent in those regions, which is why disturbances have had a hard time developing. The higher concentration of dust takes moisture out of the atmosphere, which is not what you want to see if you’re looking for tropical development.
Wind shear has also been high, which tends to limit how strong a disturbance can be.
Tropical development is not expected over the next week. These areas will continue to be monitored as we head through the rest of the month.
The peak of hurricane season is early September. This is statistically when the Atlantic basin sees the highest number of systems.
We will continue to monitor as we approach the peak of hurricane season.