JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A report released by the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors came with equal doses of good news and bad news.
The good news for home sellers: the “selling season” in Northeast Florida is underway and it even came a bit early this year.
For single-family homes in six counties tracked by NEFAR, prices are up, active inventory is up, new listings are up, and so is the median number of days on the market.
But the bad news is homes became less affordable to the average buyer.
NEFAR’s Affordability Index found that housing became less affordable in St. Johns, Clay and Baker counties while it actually became more affordable to live in Nassau.
The Home Affordability Index measures whether a typical family earns enough to qualify for a mortgage on a typical home, based on current interest rates, median income, and median home prices. A higher number means greater affordability. This index measures affordability factors for all homebuyers making a 20% downpayment. An index of 100 is defined as the point where a median-income family has the exact amount of income needed to purchase a median-priced existing home. An index value over 100 means that the family has more than enough income, while a value below 100 means that a family doesn’t have enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan.
In March, the Home Affordability Index in Duval County, for example, remained the same at 75, which is 10% less affordable than it was in March 2023.
Still, NEFAR said it is a robust market for buyers and sellers.
“The market is moving up in a positive direction each month,” NEFAR President Rory Dubin said. “March saw over a 20% increase in closed transactions despite a slight increase in the median price. In fact, almost a third of sales were above list price, indicating high demand in our more affordable market compared with the rest of and most of the Southeast. Both inventory and new listings increased as well.”
NEFAR said the median sales price for single-family homes in the region in March was $389,000, a 1% increase from February. Active inventory totaled 5,920 homes, a 3.2% increase over last month. Likewise, new listings tallied 3,580, a 6.7% increase. And the median number of days on the market stood at 33, up 3.1% from the month before.
Round Table Realty’s Howard Flaschen has more than 20 years of experience in the real estate industry and says there’s one factor buyers have to consider that outshines all the others.
“What is constraining the market or is going to be affecting the market both positively and negatively, outsized, amongst all the other reasons is going to be interest rates. That’s it full stop,” Flaschen said.
Flaschen said interest rates are driving the train as to how fast a buyer can move to buy a home, and how much home they can afford to buy.
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The average 30-year fixed interest rate for a house right now is 7.87%.
Sky High property insurance in Florida is also a barrier for some buyers.
“There’s all these input costs that go into a final number. So homeowners insurance, mortgage interest rates, all of those things boil into a final number that coincides to affordability. And it is very possible that a homebuyer that was shopping a year ago, now looks at that same final monthly cost. And just as now, I can’t do that monthly cost. Let me look at that home up the street or let me go look at that rate by down because the monthly cost is really the important thing,” Flaschen said.
Some News4JAX viewers are feeling the financial pinch.
“I am a mother of 3, bought my home in 2022 and the property taxes and insurance has gone up so much I am currently facing foreclosure. I am a current Florida National Guard member and can’t make enough to keep up,” one viewer wrote.
“This current housing market has crushed my dreams of homeownership. It has left me worried how and where I could even afford rent on my own,” another told News4JAX.
Flaschen said for buyers who can afford to buy a home, there are many positives.
“Well, they can certainly expect more inventory. They’re going to be able to find a home that maybe meets their needs more so than three or four years ago when they were competing with 40 people on a house,” he said. ″What is really a benefit for the buyers is that they can just literally take a breath and take some time. And they don’t have to put an offer on a contract on a home within an hour of seeing it.”
County-by-county breakdown:
In Duval County, the March 2024 median price of single-family housing was $345,950, slightly less than a 1% drop from February 2024. The median number of days on the market in March rose to 29, a 7.4% increase from the month before. Month-to-month closed sales rose 24.4% to 964, pending sales fell 19.4% to 746, and new listings increased 10.5% to 1,813. Active inventory for the county climbed 5.4% to 2,709 homes, a 2.8-month supply. In March, the Home Affordability Index remained the same at 75.
In Clay County, the March 2024 median price of single-family homes inched up just barely .1%, to $348.000. The median number of days on the market fell 5.4% to 44. Month-to-month, closed sales jumped 11% to 253, pending sales plummeted 25.3% to 192, and new listings climbed 4.3% to 432. Active inventory for the county rose to 741 homes, a 3.2% increase from February 2024 and showed a 2.9-month supply. The Home Affordability Index sank 1.3% to 74.
In St. Johns County, March 2024 median prices climbed 10.4% to $546,259 for single-family homes. The median days on the market rose 21.9% to 39. Month-to-month, closed sales rose 17.5% to 484, pending sales dropped 17.2% to 409, and new listings increased 3.3% to 989. Active inventory increased 4.3% to 1,852 homes, a 3.8-month supply. The Home Affordability Index fell, 11.3% to 47, indicating that it is still very expensive to live in St. Johns County.
In Putnam County, the March 2024 median price of single-family homes was $230,000, a 7.3% drop from February 2024. The median of 22 days on the market remained stable and virtually unchanged from the month before. Month-to-month, closed sales fell 6.8% to 41, pending sales plummeted 27.3% to 32 and new listings dropped 8.7% to 84. Active inventory also declined to 167 homes. Putnam County’s Home Affordability Index registered at 114.5, a 9% increase from the month before indicating that prices in the county are very much within the reach of buyers. With a Home Affordability Index registering over 100, Putnam County remains by far the most affordable place to live in the region.
In Nassau County, the March 2024 median price of single-family homes was $445,490, a negligible 1% decrease from February 2024. The median days on the market skyrocketed 53.1% to 49. Month-to-month, closed sales climbed 51.6 % to 141, pending sales decreased 15% to 125, and new listings inched up 1.3% to 234. Active inventory declined 4.7% to 402 homes, a 2.9-months’ supply. The Home Affordability Index registered 61.5, a 6% increase from the month before.
In Baker County, the March 2024 median price of single-family homes jumped to $295,000, an 18.5% increase. The median number of days on the market in March rose to 43, a 21.4% increase from the month before. Month to month, closed sales climbed 22.2% to 11, pending sales fell 33.3% to 8, and new listings increased 33.3% to 28. Active inventory decreased 3.9 % to 49 homes, a 4.5-month supply. The Home Affordability Index registered at 88, dropping 16.2% from the previous month.