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Florida Poll: Senate race, Amendment 4 narrowly contested while Trump holds double-digit lead over Harris

Poll finds Florida’s Senate race also expected to be close

FLORIDA – The University of North Florida has released a detailed snapshot of every political race and issue in Florida, showing how some key demographics are shifting as early voting begins across dozens of counties.

Major takeaways included a sizeable lead for former President Trump in the presidential race, an indication of vulnerability for Senator Rick Scott, and numbers revealing public sentiment on Amendments 3 and 4, which involve marijuana legalization and abortion.

RELATED: News4JAX Voter Guide: What to know about the candidates, issues in Northeast Florida, Southeast Georgia

A sample of 977 likely Florida voters were asked about their choice of president, U.S. Senate, and other policy issues. Responses were also recorded from those who refused to take the survey but volunteered who they would vote for before hanging up.

Trump holds sizeable lead over Harris

The UNF poll shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in the Sunshine State by 10 points, 53-43. The percentage of people who said they would vote for another candidate landed at 2% while another 2% said they were undecided.

Dr. Michael Binder, the Public Opinion Research Lab faculty director and professor of political science at UNF, talked about how Trump might have amassed this lead.

“Prior research tells us that the folks who blurt out their candidate vote choice and then hang up are likely to vote, and most of those ‘blurters’ are Trump supporters. This might help explain why his lead widened to 10 points up from 7 in our last poll back in July,” he said.

Meanwhile, Black voters are overwhelmingly leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida. The poll shows that 84% of likely Black voters in the state would vote for Harris.

When those same people were asked how they voted in 2020, 78% of the Black voters said they voted for President Joe Biden, but 8% said they didn’t vote at all during the last presidential election cycle.

In contrast, 60% of likely white voters and 55% of likely Hispanic voters said they planned to vote for Republican nominee Donald Trump.

RELATED: Early voting begins Monday in dozens of Florida counties, including Duval, St. Johns

Sen. Rick Scott not polling as well as Trump

While Trump holds a double-digit lead over Harris, his Florida Republican counterpart in the Senate, Rick Scott, hasn’t polled as well.

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Scott’s Democratic opponent, was three points behind the incumbent in UNF’s poll. Binder explains that the disconnect between support for Trump and Republican Senate candidates has been a theme throughout the country.

“[In] most battleground states where Senate races are going on, Trump is up 3-4 points over all those Senate candidates. He pulls a different type of person,” Binder said.

Amendments

Respondents were also asked how they would vote on three of the six proposed Florida constitutional amendments on the 2024 ballot.

Each amendment must receive at least 60% support to pass.

Amendment 1

For Amendment 1, which would allow for district school board elections in Florida to include partisan candidates:

  • 41% said “yes”
  • 30% said “no”
  • 30% said they didn’t know

RELATED: YES OR NO: What does your vote mean on Florida’s ballot amendments?

Binder said the large number of undecided voters might be because of “the confusing legal language, especially when read over the phone.” He also pointed out that while more likely voters support the amendment, it falls far short of the 60% threshold.

Amendment 3

Amendment 3, which would legalize adult personal use of marijuana, has increased in support since the last PORL statewide poll in July.

In the latest poll:

  • 66% said they would vote yes
  • 32% said they would vote no
  • 8% said they didn’t know yet

RELATED: Gov. DeSantis has come out strongly against marijuana legalization. We fact-checked some of his recent statements

“After years of polling on marijuana in Florida, both medical and recreational, it is clear that the majority is in favor of legalization,” Binder said. “Closing in on election day, despite some heavy campaigning, we’re seeing support for this amendment, and it’s on track to exceed the 60% supermajority required to pass.”

If passed, Amendment 3 would go into effect May 2025.

Amendment 4

Support for Amendment 4, titled “Amendment to Limit Government Interference with Abortion,” just reached the threshold for a supermajority with 60% saying they would vote “yes,” and 32% saying they would vote “no.” The number of people who said they didn’t know where they stood on the issue totaled 8%.

When asked about their stance on abortion policy, 56% of respondents described themselves as pro-choice, while 34% said they were pro-life, and 7% said they fall somewhere in between. The number of those who said they didn’t know or refused to answer totaled 2%.

RELATED: Florida abortion rights groups push back against some wording set to appear on November ballot

Binder pointed out that support for Amendment 4 has dropped from July’s poll when 69% of likely voters said they would vote in favor of it.

Binder attributed the shift to the increase in campaigning, including political ads.

“Now just barely reaching the 60% it needs to pass, it looks like the fate of abortion in Florida will come down to turnout on Election Day,” Binder said.

After the poll was released, Gov. Ron DeSantis spoke out against the amendment’s approval, citing how permanent something becomes once it is placed in the Florida Constitution.

“Once it’s in the constitution, that’s forever,” DeSantis said. “You have pretty much zero chance of ever changing it. So you better know eyes wide open what exactly they’re trying to do to this state. If they don’t convince you it’s good, you should vote no.”

Click here to read the full poll report.


About the Authors
Jonathan Lundy headshot

Hailing from Detroit, Jonathan is excited to start his media career at News4JAX in November 2023. He is passionate about telling stories that matter to the community and he is honored to serve Jacksonville.

Scott Johnson headshot

Scott is a multi-Emmy Award Winning Anchor and Reporter, who also hosts the “Going Ringside With The Local Station” Podcast. Scott has been a journalist for 25 years, covering stories including six presidential elections, multiple space shuttle launches and dozens of high-profile murder trials.

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