JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Welcome to Florida in the summertime, where afternoon storms every day are sort of a built in part of your day. Tuesday won't be any different.
We've been advertising how the weather this week will be unsettled and so far the forecast, has been pretty spot on.
The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma, has our entire area under a general risk of thunderstorms. While severe weather is not anticipated, it certainly can't be ruled out, as we saw Monday in Alachua County and Tuesday in Clay County where roofs were torn off and power poles snapped in 50+ mph winds.
Looking at the tower cams Wednesday morning, we're pretty clouded up. What's that mean for the forecast? First, it alerts me that we're not likely to see the widespread severe stuff we've seen over the past two days due to lack of direct surface heating. The more surface heat you have the more unstable the atmosphere gets as all that heat rises, cools and condenses.
That's not to say that we can't still get an isolated severe storm because we certainly could. Dewpoints are high and that means we have plenty of 'juice' to work with.
A comfortable start to the day will turn warm pretty quickly under mostly cloudy skies.
Showers are being depicted by The Weather Authority's Live 5 Doppler Radar west of Interstate 75. These showers are pushing east-northeast and should collide with the seabreeze from the east coast later this afternoon. Where the collision occurs is where you can anticipate the heaviest rain to be. It's rinse and repeat from the previous two days. It's the same set up.
Look for highs in the mid to upper 80s with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after the noon hour. Rainfall rates may approach 1 inch per hour in the heaviest of thunderstorms Wednesday, so ponding in low-lying areas may be an issue.
Those who have lived in the area know how this goes. This is not going to be an everywhere event or as John likes to say, "not every back yard." That means some areas may see some sun while others are getting hammered.
Expect this same type of weather the next seven days, including your weekend. Hey, at least it's not blistering hot -- yet.