Two areas of interest in the Tropics

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the Caribbean for development


A small disorganized cluster of thunderstorms has developed in the Gulf with little to no chance of development through the weekend. A weak trough of low pressure has moved inland along the central and upper Texas coasts. Weakening of this system is expected, isolated heavy rainfall could still occur over portions of southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana during the next day or two. These rains could result in localized flash flooding.

The tropical wave is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by midweek where the conditions will become slightly more conducive for development. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late today, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. Formation chances 30 percent - 48 hours, 40 percent - 5 days.

System number three shows showers and thunderstorms have increased and become a little better organized in association with a low pressure system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over the tropical Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable conditions should limit additional development. Formation chances 80 percent - 48 hours, 80 percent - 5 days.

None of these areas of interest pose a threat to our local forecast zones.

About the Authors:

Richard Nunn is the Weather Authority Chief Meteorologist