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The good, the bad & the ugly of upcoming nor’easter

Moderate nor’easter will bring a great chill down in Georgia, possible flooding rains and tides along Florida coastal areas

Nor'easter and the Coastal impacts
Nor'easter and the Coastal impacts

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Clearly the tropics have totally dominated our weather story for the past four months, something that I believe won’t likely repeat for another decade. This hurricane season, we have had to deal with (so far): 23 named storms, with eight cyclones, including FOUR hurricanes (one major) to hit the United States. Luckily, the death toll has been relatively low and the damage is in the low tens of billions of dollars. None of which have directly impacted Jacksonville, yet.

Meanwhile, we have now gone Greek with 23 named storms this season, here’s more.

Starting this upcoming weekend will be a multi-day nor’easter that will likely cause significant issues for a good number of people who live along any tidal waterway and for those who live at the beach.

A massive high pressure will develop over eastern Canada, then build down the east coast of the United States. The result will be strong northeast winds that will help surge the Atlantic Ocean into area waterways, up into the dunes along area beaches, plus push localized (not every backyard) heavy downpours that will cause some street flooding.

As of right now, it appears the areas to be most impacted will be in St. Johns, Flagler and Volusia counties.

But first, let’s talk about the good. Canadian air will push down south into Southern Georgia and west of US-301 in Florida that would include Gainesville to Lake City to Waycross to Brunswick. This Canadian air will result in bringing those areas some of the best weather they will have experienced since this past spring. Starting Sunday morning, average morning temperatures will be around 60° each sunrise. Each sunrise will be met with a mixture of sunshine and clouds, with more sunshine the further inland you live in South Georgia.

Outside a few brief passing showers, there will be some great weather in Georgia and inland Florida.

SaturdaySundayMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursday
Morning Low70°64°61°62°61°63°
Afternoon High80°75°74°77°78°85°
Sky ConditionsCloudyPartly CloudyPartly CloudyPartly CloudySunnySunny
RainfallBreezy Showers 0.50″Breezy Showers 0.50″A Few Sprinkles
WindsNortheast 15-25 mphNortheast 15-30 mphNortheast 15-25 mphEasterly 10-20 mphEasterly 10-15 mphEasterly 10-15 mph

And now the bad (not-so-good), coastal counties in Florida, basically east of US-301, including Duval (Jacksonville).

Northeasterly winds will dominate, there will be beach wind gusts on Sunday evening into Monday morning around 40 mph, especially from Jacksonville Beach to Flagler Beach. These gusts of wind could cause your lights to flicker (or briefly go off), there will be an occasional heavy downpour with a near constant threat of showers from Saturday through next Wednesday. There are and will be numerous advisories, warnings for those who live along the tidal Intracoastal and rivers.

Here’s a breakdown

SaturdaySundayMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursday
Coastal Flood Warnings ??
(Not issued yet, but maybe on Sunday)
High Tides about
1′ above normal
High Tides about
2′ above normal
High Tides about
+2′ above normal
High Tides about
+1′ above normal
High Tides about
+1′ above normal
High Tides about
1′ above normal
High Tide (Jacksonville Beach)10:06 am & 10:28 pm10:57 am & 11:19 pm11:50 am & --12:12 am & 12:47 pm1:12 am & 1:54 pm2:17 am & 2:56 pm
Heavy Surf Advisories4-6′6-9′8-10′6-8′5-7′3-5′
Rip Current RiskHighExtremeExtremeHighHighHigh
Rainfall1/2″ Passing
Downpours
1″ Passing
Downpours
1/2″ Passing
Downpours
Scattered
Beach Showers
Scattered
Beach Showers
Scattered
Beach Showers
WindsNE 15-25 mphNE 25-40 mphNE 20-35 mphNE 15-23 mphNE 10NE 10

The UGLY. Where the worst of the nor’easter will hit.

Beaches (inland to the St. Johns River) in St. Johns, Flagler, Putnam (eastern) and Flagler counties, including Palm Coast, St. Augustine, The World Golf, Palatka. Here the northeast winds will really pound the beaches with beach erosion likely, could lose significant amounts. Some homes maybe be threatened, it all depends on how the winds are hitting the coast, slight wind shifts do make a difference, the downside is we are looking at 5 days (or more of these winds).

Rainfall will be more excessive, with a few locations likely to see more than 4″ of rain, given how saturated we are we could some inland flooding.

Winds will be higher, with beach gusts to 40 mph (or higher).

Nor'easter will be a coastal event

About the Author:

Our chief meteorologist lives and breathes the weather on the First Coast.