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Tropics quiet now, but could produce a Gulf storm late next week

No systems in the tropics this week
No systems in the tropics this week

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The tropics are gloriously quiet right now. It looks like that will continue for the rest of this week.

Next week all eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico as the long-term forecast model (GFS) has consistently shown from model run to model run, a system developing in the Gulf. What has not been consistent at all is where that system ends up, with wildly different outcomes nearly each model run.

Long term forecast models showing system developing in the Gulf
Long term forecast models showing system developing in the Gulf

The National Hurricane Center is watching the area that may become Gamma in the Gulf, placing a 60% chance for it to form over the next five days. A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward over the next couple of days and interact with a frontal system, producing a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

NHC Tropical Outlook
NHC Tropical Outlook

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