Will hurricanes drop after peak hurricane season?

Conditions don’t favor any slowdown

After the 2020 September 10, hurricane season peak, 12 tropical systems formed.

Friday marks the peak of hurricane season and it could be a long second half based on the bustling activity so far.

The Atlantic has nearly reached the normal average of named storms for an entire season and it doesn’t end until Nov. 30.

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So far as of the first eight days in September, 13 named storms have formed in the Atlantic basin. Only four other years have had this many storms so soon in the hurricane season since the advent of satellite monitoring.

Hurricane development is very quiet through June and July and typically ramps up as August begins. The peak of hurricane season occurs September 10.

Now that we are over the hump should the frequency drop off? That’s not likely this year and we need to keep our guard up.

After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad.

Although statistics show August through October are the most likely times to find tropical cyclones somewhere in the Atlantic basin, the cycle in recent years has been for storms both later and earlier in the season.

Between now and early October warm water temperatures peak and upper-level winds provide fertile conditions favoring hurricane growth. This is why we are likely to see several more systems develop in the weeks ahead.

October brings a secondary peak during the early part of the month when Gulf Hurricanes are prone to hitting Florida.

Zeta rapidly intensified into a category 3 hurricane just before landfall in southeastern Louisiana. Zeta’s fast forward motion brought strong winds well inland into areas of the southeastern United States. The hurricane caused 5 direct fatalities and about $4.4 billion in damage in the United States. (NOAA)

Remember Zeta, the strongest major hurricane to hit the United States so late in the season? Just last year we emptied out the entire alphabet list of names before Hurricane Zeta hit Louisiana right before Halloween.

Let’s hope we get no scares from a hurricane this Halloween.


About the Author

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

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