El Niño is Coming, and it Could Affect Hurricane Season in Florida

Some storm protection in summer-less in winter

Moving away from La Nina to neutral conditons somewhat favors fewer hurricanes. A complete switch to El Nino would increase shear across the Atlantic.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an El Niño watch, which means that there is a 62% chance that the climate pattern will develop during the May–July period, and more than 80% chance of El Niño by the fall.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs when the waters in the Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This can lead to changes in weather patterns around the world, including a quieter hurricane season.

This is because El Niño typically increases the upper level winds in the Atlantic Ocean, which can make it more difficult for hurricanes to form.

It is something that Floridians should be aware of since past years of El Nino have resulted in fewer hurricanes during the season.

However, for the storms that do surmount the more hostile weather formation conditions, El Niño provides no guarantee in deflecting or keeping the storms  from striking Florida.

It doesn’t matter how many storms there are because a bad year can happen if just one strikes our area.

It is a good idea to have a hurricane plan in place and to stay informed about the latest weather forecasts.

Hopefully the pattern does not last into Winter

El Nino may be good in the summer months but over the winter it causes more violent tornadoes around NE Florida.

More frequent severe weather and tornadic activity across Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida are associated with Strong El Niños due to systems that migrate across the Gulf of Mexico. They help push moisture over us leading to strong cold fronts and severe weather.


About the Author

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

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