JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Tropical Storm Bret continues to march westward toward the Lesser Antilles, and a push into the Caribbean is highly likely.
So why are meteorologists not concerned about the system moving northward toward our area?
The forecast change
When Bret first formed on Monday, there was high uncertainty about the exact track of the system.
Some computer models organized the system quickly and moved it more northwestward out into the open Atlantic.
A second set of models kept the system much weaker and had it drift toward the Caribbean Sea.
Bret ended up staying a weak tropical storm, which means a northward track is no longer possible.
The major computer models are now in high agreement Bret will continue tracking west into the Caribbean Sea.
Clearly, a system moving westward has a better chance of impacting the area than one that heads out to sea.
Shear saves the day
It is likely Bret will be a strong tropical storm as it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Thursday.
Once it enters the Caribbean Sea, things change.
The central and eastern Caribbean features high wind shear, which is bad news for tropical systems.
Wind shear disrupts the inner workings of a tropical complex and can even rip apart systems.
Bret will run right into this wind shear and will be impacted dramatically.
Nearly all of the forecast models have Bret weakening down to a tropical wave, and it may dissipate completely by early next week.
What’s left of Bret will likely float into the western Caribbean, possibly impacting Central America.
While a westward track is normally a bit concerning for our area, shear will break apart Bret and the system will not be heading toward our area.