As of 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located 1,200 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands.
There are currently no coastal watches or warnings in effect, but interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
While the likelihood of it staying out at sea is high, the timeframe is far enough out that the track might bring it closer to the eastern coast of the United States. Earlier forecast model runs over Labor Day weekend did suggest a landfall from the mid-Atlantic to New England. Any remote chance of this would be toward the end of next week.
Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction in forward speed.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Lee is expected to become a hurricane later Wednesday and a major hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb.
A Category 1 storm will produce some damage from very dangerous winds between 74 mph and 95 p.m. A Category 2 hurricane has winds between 96 mph and 110 mph that can create extensive damage. Category 3 is considered a major hurricane, with winds of 111 to 129 mph, which will cause devastating damage. Category 4 (winds 130 mph-156 mph) is considered a catastrophic storm that can cause widespread damage and cause an area to be uninhabitable for weeks or months, NHC said.
Lee is expected to become a major hurricane that will track between Bermuda and the northern Leeward Islands by the end of the weekend. Both the GFS and the EURO are in close alignment on a path northwestward before a turn northward by the middle of next week.
There will be plenty of time to watch and see if the long-range models are correct in forecasting an eastern U.S. upper trough that could deflect the storm northward out to sea in the western Atlantic. Let’s hope so.
Regardless of the path, the massive swells from the extremely large hurricane will start impacting Jacksonville beaches on Tuesday.