JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Wednesday marked the first day of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Experts from Colorado State University and NOAA believe that this season will be slightly above average.
Colorado State University Wednesday sent an update to their April prediction. They are now calling for 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). This total already includes Hurricane Alex back in January and Tropical Storm Bonnie at the end of May.
Recommended Videos
Their June 1st prediction is an increase in the overall storm total by one. Last April, they had predicted 13/6/2 respectively.
Despite having a more favorable conditions for Atlantic tropical development, the cold waters of the north Atlantic are indicative of something else going on that may counteract the more favorable conditions.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead tropical forecaster for Colorado State, had this to say about the expected conditions of the Atlantic this season:
"We continue to anticipate that the 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have approximately average activity. The current weakening El Niño is likely to transition to weak La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. While the tropical Atlantic is relatively warm, the far North Atlantic and subtropical northeastern Atlantic are quite cold, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."
Back at the end of May, NOAA also released their forecasts for the upcoming season. Albeit a more broad range, they still called for a near average to a slightly above average season with 10 to 16 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes.
There are no forecasts by a reputable agency that predicts number of landfalls or locations of landfalls. It's important to keep in touch with News4Jax.com for the very latest on tracks when a storm does develop.
Remember that it does not take a busy season to be a devastating one. A strong hurricane in your backyard makes it a bad season.