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Grace weakens to Tropical Depression, Heavy rain expected for Dominican Republic and Haiti

Tracking the Tropics

TD Grace

As Grace tracks west through the Caribbean over land the storm has weaken slightly to a Tropical Depression. There is still a good deal of uncertainty with its track.

As of 11 a.m., a disorganized Grace was about 85 miles southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Its max sustained winds are 35 mph.

The tropical depression is moving to the west at roughly 15 mph. Weakening is forecast as the system crosses Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Some strengthening could occur if the center moves back over water on Tuesday.

A continued westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days.

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Haiti was just rocked by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake on Saturday that killed more than 300 people.

Most models agree Grace will pass over the Dominican Republic, but when the storm approaches Cuba, that’s where models either keep Grace north of south going into the Gulf.

Right now the cone has Grace going right through Cuba Wednesday into Thursday which keep the storm weak as it encounters the mountainous landscape.

GFS Model Next Sunday (Copyright 2021 by WJXT News4Jax - All rights reserved.)

The latest GFS model shows Grace pushing across Cuba as a weak Tropical Depression, and then pushing west into the south western Gulf of Mexico. This would be the best case scenario for northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Not so good for those from Texas down to Mexico.

The Bermuda High off the East Coast plays a large role in this track, steering the storms to the west.

The Weather Authority will be tracking Tropical Depression Grace very carefully in the coming days and will continue to update the track and our potential local impacts.

About the Author:

Danielle forecasts the weather on the weekends and reports on climate, environment and other issues during the week