JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Size does matter when it comes to the effects of a storm.
As Hurricane Dorian grew in size Tuesday, so did its ability to expand its footprint into our state. On Monday, while Dorian was a Category 4 storm, the hurricane-force winds only extended 45 miles from the center. Now that the storm is a Category 2, hurricane-force winds are now 60 miles from its center.
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How did Dorian almost double in size in about 24 hours?
There are a couple of reasons this happened. It stalled for about 12 hours over cooler sea-surface temperatures which began to take away some of Dorian's strength, mass and momentum. The mass that was originally around the storm's center became distributed over a greater distance and allowed its clouds to reach out farther away from the eye.
The other reason Dorian grew but didn't intensify has to do with the cyclone's eyewall replacement cycle that occurred on Tuesday. Once Dorian picked up speed again and moved away from land friction, which also siphoned away momentum, it was able to reform its eyewall. Newly formed eyes are normally larger and can cause a hurricane wind field to double in size.
As a result, Dorian has gone from almost 200 miles wide to 400 miles, or close to the length of Florida.
So, what does this mean for our weather?
The National Hurricane Center's latest track moved Dorian a little bit more to the east, which signaled that the storm's center would be 100 miles away compared to Monday's 75-mile distance. Still, now that it's larger, those outer bands will be able to reach farther into Florida, which means the forecast didn't change too much in regard to the areas that will be directly impacted by the hurricane.
Coastal rainfall totals are estimated at 3 to 6 inches with totals inland measuring 2 to 4 inches. Storm surge is still the biggest concern with this storm as Southeast Georgia could have a repeat of Hurricane Matthew. Wind gusts are expected to be strongest east of the St. Johns River between 35 to 60 mph with the latter closest to the beaches.