JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Tropical Depression 18 strengthened into Tropical Storm Sam on Thursday and then a hurricane early Friday before becoming a major hurricane Saturday morning.
The National Hurricane Center said the storm has strengthened slightly.
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As of 11 a.m. Sam is a Category 4 hurricane. The storm was moving toward the northwest near 8 mph with sustained winds at 130 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast to continue through midweek.
The eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 54.3 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph and this motion with an increase in forward is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the east of the northern Leeward Islands hrough Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb or 28.12 inches.”
Hurricane #Sam Advisory 18: Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Finds Sam Has Peaked in Intensity. Expected to Remain a Major Hurricane For Several Days. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 27, 2021
#Sam becomes a major hurricane. Forecast track and intensity remains unchanged, which should keep the hurricane well NE of the Leeward Islands. However, dangerous surf and rip currents possible across Lesser Antilles beginning in a couple of days. More: https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/azZkbUrBHf
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 25, 2021
Sam is the 18th named storm of the season. Other than in 2005, this is the earliest an eighteenth storm has formed during a hurricane season.
Sam is boosting the percentage higher as it is now the fourth major hurricane of the season out of six hurricanes so far. Meteorologist Mark Collins says that despite the abundant activity this year, many storms have been weak, under hurricane strength, and only lasting two days or less.
The abundance of weaker storms is reflected in a metric called ACE, or accumulated cyclone energy. Of all the storms so far, it is just 11% more than a typical year up until this point. This calculus offers a more realistic representation of overall activity compared to simply checking off names on the hurricane list that have little longevity.
A real concern since this system could be a threat to Puerto Rico around Sept. 29. It will have a week to travel across the Atlantic possibly passing close to the Lesser Antilles. Some models like the ECMWF take it farther west toward the Bahamas toward the end of next week while the GFS is farther away from the islands. It is far too early to say whether it will have any impact on Florida.