It was 29 years ago when the movie “Groundhog Day” came out, yet it must seem like yesterday for the die-hards who want to believe in this prognosticator. Apparently, according to an article posted in StudyFinds.org, a poll found 3 in 5 Americans trust Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction more than climatologists/meteorologists.
Before I get into that, let me tell you one of my all-time favorite stories about Phil. I was working “The Morning Show” at Channel 4 about 20 years ago (can’t remember the exact year) when it was time for old Phil to come out of his den.
Recommended Videos
Well, that’s not quite how it played out. First off, Phil was literally yanked out of his den, screaming and kicking. He clearly didn’t want to go out into the bitter cold, heavy — and I mean heavy — snow falling to be paraded in front of a massive crowd. In this driving snowstorm, under blinding lights, it was then proclaimed: “Phil, saw his shadow, foretelling of six more weeks of winter.”
Yep, on the darkest, snowiest of days, Phil saw his shadow.
Right there, I knew this was no more than a total publicity stunt — not that I really needed any more information after seeing the movie “Groundhog Day” 10 years earlier.
Meteorologically, Phil could not have seen his shadow.
His forecast should have been: “Phil didn’t see his shadow, and therefore spring is on the way.”
As it turned out, the snowstorm that rolled across Pennsylvania was one of the last for the winter, and the Eastern United States saw a quick warm-up into spring.
3 in 5 believe Phil more than meteorologists, hmm.
The reality is that longer-range forecasting has come a long way.
Not real long, as there is much to work to be done regarding the day-to-day specifics. But we have come a long way, whether we will be a quarter flip of “heads it’s warmer and tails it’s colder” — basically Phil’s forecast.
Anyway, Phil did see his shadow this morning — which means he was scared of his shadow and has run back inside his den and pronounced six more weeks of winter.
RELATED: Punxsutawney Phil predicts 6 more weeks of winter
Forecast models suggest otherwise. Starting around Feb. 23, the Eastern U.S. should begin to warm and warm considerably, pointing to an early start to spring.
(Thank you, Tropical Tidbits, for these graphics!)
Short term: The next two weeks look normally chilly-cool without any additional freezes.
The next and maybe the last serious threat of a freeze may arrive in Jacksonville just after Valentine’s Day.
Across the nation, it is a rough end of the workweek with Winter Storm Warnings from Colorado to Texas to New England for heavy snow, heavy freezing rain (ice) and another surge of cold by early next week.
Looking ahead to the Winter Olympics
Cold but not much snow for the capital of China, Beijing. The winter (snow) storm track this time of year is often well south.
📸 Snap of the Week
This week’s SnapJAX comes from SnapJAX user andyhernandez, who uploaded this photo from Jacksonville Beach.
Want to see your picture featured on-air or online? Download the News4Jax Weather Authority App (Apple, Google) or log in to your Insider profile and upload your pics to SnapJAX.
đź”’ Get more out of Insider
New to News4JAX Insider? Welcome! Here’s how to get more out of Insider: