Deciphering fact from tropical fiction
By now, you have seen the clickbait headlines of “something brewing in the Tropics.” Before you start packing your bug-out bag and checking your hurricane kits, let’s get past the headlines and get to the facts.
Here is the current update as of 2 p.m. Wednesday from the National Hurricane Center for the North Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.
“Bay of Campeche: A broad area of low pressure could form over the Bay of Campeche late this week from a westward-moving tropical wave. Conditions
are not expected to be favorable for significant development, and the system should move inland over eastern Mexico late this weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent."
The key points here are the low chances of development over the next 7 days. Something else to look for is the description of the potential low. In this case, it is a weak wave that could become a broad area of low pressure.
If we put a 10 percent chance on every tropical wave or the potential of a low-pressure area, this is going to be a long season.
Further information can be found in the Tropical Weather Discussion on the National Hurricane Center’s homepage.
Under the update for the Gulf, you will find a deeper explanation.
“For the forecast, a modest surface ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern and north-central Gulf into early next week.
A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu night and then track slowly northwestward through the weekend. It will enhance the gradient with the surface ridge, causing fresh to strong SE winds across the south-central and northwestward Gulf. It will also trigger scattered to numerous thunderstorms and rough seas across the west-central Gulf into Sun."
Let’s take it line by line. In the first sentence, a modest surface ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds. This means an area of high pressure at the surface is bringing southeasterly winds.
In sentence number two, more details emerge. “A trough or weak low-pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thursday night.” This means that, as of now, there isn’t a low-pressure area, but one may develop on Thursday. The sentence continues, “then track slowly northwestward through the weekend.” This means the possible area will move northwest, over land and across Mexico. The land interaction will bring weaker chances of further development.
Bottom line, between AI stories and those looking for Likes and Clicks, look past the headlines and get to the facts. Take the time to check the models and read the Tropical Forecast Discussions.
If you don’t have time for that, you can always get the latest from the Weather Authority on our Weather Authority App.